Looking At The Year 1880

Tlio speculative American mind is already exercised concerning the present population of our beloyed country, and is taxing ite Yankee privilege of guessing what that population will be in the year 1880 - if this weary old world lives long enough to hail that year of enunieration. Under ordinaryand regular eonditions the merest tyro in mathematica could foreeast our increase. But the conditions are not ordinary, and great allowances must be made for variations. For instance, if we had a certain ratio of increase from 1840 to 1850, and from 1850 to 18C0, it would naturally foilow, supposing eonditions equal, that something like a similar ratio would prevail for the next ten years. But the eonditions are rudically changed ; the circumstances are not only different but exceptional, and no formula of the past can be made to apply. The war of the Rebellion, besides abolishing slavery and upsetting almost every established idea and institution" in the land, made fearful inroads into the population of the country. There was not only the loss by battle and attending evils, but the absence of 500,000 of young and middle-aged men necessarily reduced the natural increase in times of peace. Then there was a rapid decline in immigration; a decline that has continued to the present time, and bids fair to go still further. Bet ween the arrival of 500,000 and less than 100,000 in a year there is a very material differenee. It should be noted, too, that the great majority of immigrante are men and women in the beginning of life, founders of immediate families. These hints are thrown out to prepare the reader for the estimateH, to be made further od, of the population of the . Union now, and the probable population in 1880. Keep in view the tremendous draiu by actual loss in the war, the natural retardation of increase in , quence of the absence of heads of families, and the sudden reduction of immigration. Going back to the first census taken in 1790, we summarize the enumerations up to 1870. Bear in mind, however, that a considerable fraction of population has j been added by annexation, as in the purchase of Louisiana and Florida, the conquest of Texas, the partition of Mexico, and the forlorn outpost of Alaska. Here is the summary : 'Total Increase Per cent. Census af Population. in 10 years. inc. 1730 3,929,21 1800 5,308,483 1,379,269 38.10 1810 7,239,381 1,931,398 36.38 1820 9,(533,822 2.393,941 33.06 1830 12,866,020 3,232,198 83.87 1840 17,069,453 4,203,433 32.70 , 1850 28,191,876 6.122,423 36.45 1860 ,..31,443,321 8,251,445 35.58 1870 38,558,371 7,115,060 22.63 ( The uniformity of the increase up to the war of the Bebellion is very remarkable. Taken altogether, it shows a ; tle more than 3J per cent, a year. At : that rate we should have had in 1870 : about 42,500,000. We feil short about 4,000,000. We are getting well along into the last half of the decade, and several State enumerations were made in 1875. From ; these, and from the figures of the past, , there may be found reasonable grounds , for estimating the present population, . and the probable population in 1880. ENTOIERATIONS SINCE 1870. Censuses were taken in twelve States in 1875. Michigan took one in 1874, and Missouri and Nebraska in 1876. In the following table are given the reeults of these enumerations, compared with the Federal census of 1870, showing the increase of population in actual number of persons; giving also the rate of increase by percentage: PüjmlaVn, PopulaCn, Incr'm, Staten. 1870. 1875. Increase. pur et. Iowa 1,194,020 1,350,544 156,524 13.11 Kansas .. . 364,399 528,437 164,038 45.01 Loulsiana.. 726,915 857,039 130.J24 17.90 Massacku'ts 1 457,331 1,651,912 194,661 13.35 Michigan... 1,184,059 1,334,031 149.972 12.66 Minnesota.. 439,760 597,407 157,611 35.85 Missouri.... 1,721,295 t2,C85,537 364,242 21.16 Nebraska... 122,933 t257,747 134,814 109.67 tievada 42,491 52,540 10,049 23.65 New Jersey. 906,096 1,019,413 113,317 12.51 New York.. 4,382,759 4,705,208 322,449 7.36 Oregon 90,923 104,920 13,997 15.39 II. Mand. . . 217,353 253.239 40,886 18.81 S. Carolina. 70'.,606 823,447 117,841 16.70 Wisconsin.. 1,054,670 1,236,599 181,929 17.25 Totals. ...14,610,636 16,863,020 2,253,384 15.42 Census of 1874, tCenaus of 1876. Now let us compare the rate of increase above indicated with those of previous enumerations. In order to make the comparison more clear, we must doublé the rates above given to correspond with the ratios of earlier periods of ten years : Increase Increase Incrtase per cent. per cent. per cent. 1850 tn 1860 to 1870 to States. 1860. 1870. 1880. Iowa 251.11 76.91 26.22 Kaneas 240.00 90.02 Louisiana 36.74 2.67 35.80 MfBSÉohusettü 23.78 18 38 20.70 Michigan 88.66 68.01 25.32 Minnesota 2,730.72 125 53 71.70 Missouri 73.30 45.62 42.35 Nebraska 377.11 219.34 Nevada 519.67 47.30 New Jersey 37.27 34.83 25.02 New York 2".(H 12.93 14.72 Oregon 287.13 72.10 30.7H Hhode Island 18.36 24.64 37.02 South Carolina.... 5.30 0.27 33.40 WiBconsin 154.05 35.90 34.50 The next operation is to reduce this percentage of increase into figures, wbich produces the following result for 1880, supposing the increase from 1870 to 1875 to continue: Populat'n Per Cent. Papulal'n States. 1870. Increase. 1880. Iowa 1,194 020 26.22 1,507,058 Kansas 364,399 90.22 092,475 Louisiana 726,915 35.80 987,163 Massftckusetts 1,457,351 26.70 1,846,473 Michigan 1,184,057 25.12 1,484,001 Minnesota 439,766 71.70 735,048 Missouri 1,721,295 42.32 2,449,759 NebraHka 122,933 219.34 392,5(11 Nevada 42 491 47.30 62,681 New Jersey 900,096 25.02 1,182,731 New York 4 332 759 14.72 5,027,057 Oregon ' '.10,1)23 30.78 118,91" Iïhode Island 217,353 37. 62 209,125 South Carolina.... 705,616 33.40 941,288 Wiaconsin 1,034,670 34.50 1418 518 Totals 14010,636 30.84 19,115,404 The States that have made no enumcratioa since 1870 must be estimated. o. course, in accordance with their previoufc ratios. We give them with their per cent. of increase from 1850 to 1860, anc from 1860 to 1870 : Inc.. Inc. j Inc. Inr. 1850 to 1860 (o 1850 to 1860 to States. 1860. 1871'. Staten. 1860. 1870. Alabama 24 95 B. Mary land.... 17.81 13.66 Arkansa8....107.41 11.26 Mississippi. . 30.47 4.63 California ...308.21 47.44 New Hamp.. 2.64 '2.44 Oonnecticut.. 24.10 21.15 N. Carolina. . 14.22 7 9! Delawarc.... 22.84 11.41 Ohio 18.14 18.9 Florida i'.u.r7 3:t.7ll lVimKylvamu 25.111 21.1' Georgia 10.57 12.70 Tennessee. .. 10.68 13.4 Illinois 101.06 48.36 Texas .1K4.21 31.4 Indiana .... 30.63 24.45 Verniont . . . , 0.31 0.4 Maine 7,73 "3,17 Va. and W.V U38 i.i 'Loes. Surely eaoh of these States must liave iaoreased sinoe 1 H7( i pOBlid 'h}y f RBte than during the war period; yet we will take in round numbers very nearly the rate of increase irom 1860 to 1870, and apply it as follows : l'ojmlatirm fumase, Populatinn States in 1870. per et. in 1880. Alábanla 906,902 4.00 1,030,869 Arkanpas 484,471 12.00 525,607 California 560,247 50.00 840,370 Connecticut 637,454 20.00 644,744 Delaware 125,015 10.00 137,510 Florida 187,748 30.00 244,282 Georgia 1,184,109 12.00 1,325,202 Illinois 2,539,891 50.00 3,809,836 Indiana 1,680,637 25.00 2,10(1,791 Maine 626,915 .... 620,915 Maryland 780,894 12.00 875,451 Miesissippi 827,922 5.00 869,318 New Hauipsliire 318,300 .... 318,300 Nortti Carolina 1,071,361 8.00 ],16?,089 Ohio 2,665,260 15.00 3,065,019 Pcnnsylvania 3,521,951 25.00 4,402,439 TenneSBee 1,258,520 12.00 1,409,540 Texas 818,579 40.00 1,146,010 Vermont 330,551 .... 830,551 Virginia and W. Va. 1,067,177 5.00 1,750,535 Totals 23,505,005 13.24 26,1.1 0,394 Addabovc 14,610,636 30.84 19,115,404 Aggregate 38,115,041 20.0Ü 46,781,798 We shall probably have over 46,000,000, the Territories iiicluded, in 1880. Some rather euthusiastic editora teel confldent of more than 50,000,000, but that is clearly too high a figure. That would demand an iucrease of 30 per cent. all around, which, considering the fact that iinmigration has dwindled to almost nothiDg, is not expeeted. SECTIONAL MIGRATION. It is little satisfaction to take State by State, and bIiow where the people of the several States go to when they go at all. We are essentially sectional, and our internal migration runs on lines of latitude in the most remarkable manner. Take the B Warming hive that has peopled the great West, for instanee. That hive coinprises all New England, New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. What tb is Eastern section has done in the peopling of the country may be under&tood f rom the tables herewith submitted. We divide the country into four seotions - the Eastern, embracing New England, New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania; the Westo-rn embracing Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Kansas, and Nebraska; the Pacific, embracing Nevada, California, and Oregon; and the Southern, taking in all the old slave States except Missouri, which goes witli the West. These condensed tables show the number of natives of the Eastern and Middle States in 1850, 1860, and 1870; the number of such natives residing within the said territory, and the number of natives of the Eastern and Middle SHtes who were living in other States; also the percentage of all natives of said section who had gone to the West and South. LIVING IN THE STATES. Staten. In 1850. In 1860. In 1870. Maine 58t,310 676,060 695,309 New Hainpshire.. 371,469 382,521 369,676 Vermont 377,441 413,852 418,125 MiuFaclniBCtts.... 894,818 1,010,585 1,134,171 Rhode Islaud 145,491 155,264 167,033 Connectiout 447,594 476,310 477,973 New York 2,698,414 3,400,492 4,000,041 New Jersey 518,810 612,034 606,050 Pennsylvania 2,266,797 2,862,616 3,341,153 Total 8,305,074 10,088,640 11,296,229 Increase per cent. in ten years. . 21.47 11.97 In the last column the white population only is included. To show how these Eastern and Middle States have spoiled themselves for the 'West, we take only the State of Michigan. In 1870 that State contained 916,049 inhabitants who were born in the United States. They were natives of the following States : MichiRan 507,268 Connecticut 7,412 eastehn and middle. Rhode Islaud 1,137 Maine 3,932 New York 231.509 New Hampshire . . . 3, 633 New Jersey 8,033 Vermont 14,445 Pennsylvania 28,507 Massaehusctts 10,889 - Eastern and Middle 309,447 So it seems that of the natives of the United States living in Michigan, 55.37 per cent. were born in that State, 33. 78 per cent. were from Eastern and Middle States, and 10.85 per cent. from other parte of the Union. Of the last contingent, only a mere sprinkling carne from the South, and a large proportion of those were colored pepple. 'Ihe line of migration in the South is even more distinctly marked by lines of latitude than in the North. The overflow of the South Atlantic States is due west toward and beyond the Mississippi. Of course the border States give something to their neighbors, but the flood is not in that direction. The Territories have not been taken into consideration in any of the above calculations. One of them (Colorado) has been admitted as a State since 1870. The native-born population of all the Territories in 1870 was 348,530. At the rate they are growing this would mean nearly a million in 1880. So we may ' guess " the entire population at the next centennial census at somewhere near 47,000,000.