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Our Present Population

Our Present Population image
Parent Issue
Day
14
Month
February
Year
1879
Copyright
Public Domain
OCR Text

Xne present (Jongress aas lew more important duties to perform than to provide for the taking of the new census. Very useful suggestions have been made to the eommittee by Prof. Walker, who superintended the last census, and who is rpecially qualified,both by experience and scholaiship, to point out the defects in the mode hithorto adopted. No effort should be spared to make the next enumeration more thorough than any taken during the first centnry of the republic. It is particularly desirable that the many and obvious defects in the method of collecting industrial sta■ tisties should kO romovcil, for ifc io woll i knowñ that the statistics tiras far ob' tained have liad but a moderate value. Uut the important political interests which depend upon the enumeration of population also make it exceedingly desirable that the work should be more accurately and faithfully performed than has been possible undei the old system. It is a notorious fact that in many localI ities the rivalry of towns has had soine influence upon the thoroughness of the work, and the results will inevitably be distrusted as long as returns from one jjlace can be held back for revisión until those from other places kave been forwarded and ma-'e public. The plan of dividing the work so that the actual enumeration can be performed within a very short time, and simultaneously in all palts of the country, on many accounts deserves especial consideración. It is singular that writers and speakers, contrary to the usual American habit, have almost without exception understated the population of the country for some years past. Probably the nation is now growing too modest, as it formerly was too much inclined to boasting. But those who have occasion to refer to the present population almost invariably mention a number which the country has undoubtedly passéd several years ago. It is customary to speak of the population as about 44,000,000 or 45,000,000. But the calculations of Prof. Elliott, of the Census Bureau, which thus far have been singularly sustained by facts, give 47,983,000 as the probable population July 1, 1878, and 49,395,000 as the probable population Jnly 1, 1879. These calculations, based upon the principie of constant second dinerences, give an increase of about 32 per cent. for the decade now approaching an end. They are strongly confirmed by the census taken in fifteen of the States by State authority, during 1874 in Michigan, during 1875 in Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Carolina and Wisconsin, and during 187(5 in Missouri and Nebraska. With allowance for the unavoidable incompleteness of every census taken by detective State machinery, it must be granted that the actual increase for the whole country to 1875 must have been at least as great as tlie increase apparent in the returns from these States of the dates named. The population of the fifteen States in 1870 was 14,G10,63ö, and, according to the census taken by the States about the middle of the decade, it was 16,963,020, the gain being 16.1 per cent. in about five years, or at the rate of 32.2 per cent. for the decade. It is, therefore, probable that the estímate of Prof. Elliott will not prove greatly in error and that the present population, Jan. 1, 1879, is not from 48,600,000. The question of greatest political interest connected with the census is in regard to the reapportionment of represen tation. Taking as guides, first, the increase ascertained about the middle of the decade in some States, and, second, the wellestablished fact that since the panic of 1873 there has been a very important readjustment in the occupatiou and location of laborera, with extraordinary increase in the population of the newer agricultural States, we have prepared an estímate of the probable population at this time by States, and find tbat the aggregates for the several sections are as follows : Popubtlitm. Eastern and Middle States 14,808,00(1 Western and Pacific States 10,270,000 Former slavf States 16,800,00 J Total States 47,5(18.000 Teriitories üfii.OOO ïotnl population 48,088,000 If Prof. Elliott's estimate is fully sustained, the population of each of these divisions should be slightly increased, the Western States and the Territorios the most. It is possible that the allowance made for recent increase in Texas and Arkansas is too large, but the gain in those States and Western Louisiana has certainly compensated in part the retarded growth of older Southern States. If a new apportionment were to be made upon the present population, there would be little difference in representaron between the South and the West, if those estimates are correct. But the Western States are growing much the more rapidly, and within the eighteen months remaining of the decade it is probable that they will considerably outstrip the former slave States in population, and secure a larger representation than any other section.

Article

Subjects
Old News
Michigan Argus