The Gold Reserve

New York, September 7, 1895. The course of the financial markets is indicative of a steady growth of public trast. Each succeeding week, the wave of confidence gains increased force and is steadily earrying before it all the , ,1 ,s1 ructions of distrust. It is more and inore recognized that the elements which are making for improvement stand associated with natural forces; while those which have heen unsettling confideuce have been connected with the mere instrumenta of commerce. It still remains a question whether the latter factors- especially the eondition of the treasury and the silver agitation -can materially obstruct the great natural recuperative forces that are now asserting their influence from one end of the country to the other and through the entire range of our industry. I'erhapa tlie best answer to tbis questiou is in the fact that, for the last six months, the recuperative fovces have been steadily gaining ascendancy over those tending to derangement and distrust. A more positive argument for confidence than this fact aftbrds could hardly be conceived. It implies a settled convictiou in the public mind that, with a sound eondition of the material interests of the country, the way will ere long be found for removing the fiscal and inonetary conditions that now stand in the way to absolute confidence. And that conviction is a rational one. For althouuh it may not be, at this moment, generally apparent exactly when or how these financial derangements will be readjusted, vet there is uothing like an impossibility or even a substantial difficulty in the way of that achievemeut. The gold question is beset by no such serious difficulty as a substantial deficiency of supply ; the trouble there lies simply in a departure from the usual distribution and reservoirs and circulation and use of the metal. That disarrangeraent has arisen from no uncontrollable cause, but simply from a mistaken course in the fiscal useges of the treasury, whichhad the effect of depriving the banks of their customary receipts of gold from the government at the clearing house, thereby compelling tliein to almost entirely suspend gold paymenta and throwing the whole gold movement into suspension, to the detriment chiefly of the treasury itself. This confusión is susceptible of remedy the moment the treasury and the banks can be brought into conference, with a view to the restoratiou of their old relations in this matter, with such modifications or safeguards as, ander the circumstances, uiay appear advisable. In the meantime, the loan syndicate continúes its valuable services to the ; government by supplying the treasury with fiuld as fast as it is taken from the reserve for export ; and ha ving persisted in that course to the extent they already have, it seems safe to assume that they will continue this support until the foreign exchanges have turned in our favor. That stage in affairs being reached, neiv possibilities will appear, favorable to the syndicate crowning its remedial work by bringing the banks and treasury to an understanding that will finally settle this embarrassing question. Jndgiñg from ordinary precedent, the current exports of gold may be expected to be followed, within a moderate period, by imports of specie. Arguing from the way in which the syndicate has been able to control the exports of gold and the foreign exchanges for months past, it is reasonable to assume that, if it were desirable in order to achieve an important purpose, they could, ander the present plethora of gold in the European banks, swell tlie reflux of it to this side of the Atlantic. The result of these movements would appear in a material increase of the stock of gold at this centre. This ilenishment of the specie in the city banks, would remove the chief practical Dbjection the)' have feit to a resumption af their former relations with the treasiiry. My information leads me to look Eorward to this approacliing situation as the point at which tlie banks will return to the payment of custoins duties chieflj' in gold and to providing gold ios export, the treasury at the same time settling its balances at the clearing house in gold; while the syndicate will retire froin its services, leaving the circulation pf gold restored to its normal eondition. The gold question having been thus Bettled, there need be little further fear aboutthe silver agitation. The treasury reserve haviug been again placed upon a safe foundation, the cosnequent recovery of confldence at home and ad will produce a revival of business and a rise in all values whicli will annihilate the pretense that the depression of business and the in prices have been caused by the "demonetizatiou of sil ver ;" and the f ree coinage of that metal will be relegated to the dead issues of popular ignorance.