Major Handy's Estmate

Chicago Times-Herald : Until lato ly, while regarding McKinley's nomination as assured, sofar as anytliing in the political future could be assured, I have thought that his nomination "vvould not tak eplace until the second ballot. Buit, going over every st-ate with care, comparing claims, weighing probabilitios, look ing at movementa going on below the surface and giving the ground swell for McKinley its natural erfect, I have come to the conclusión that the first ballot will make hiin the Bominee. Here is the way I figure it out : PROBABLE VOTES FOR MCKINLEY. Alabama , 16 North Dak ota 6 Arkansas 16 Ohio . 46 California . 10 Oregon . 8 florida S Peonsylvania 16 Georgia 13 South Carolina 9 llinols 30 South Dakota 4 ndiana 30 Tennessee 24 Cansas 20 Texas 10 jouisiana 10 Virginia 18 Maryland 10 Washington .. 4 Michigan 28 West Virginia 12 Minnesota 6 Wisconsin . 24 .lississippi 18 Utah 2 Missouri 34 Wyoming 3 Vebraska 16 Territories 2 ew Jersey 14 Tew York 15 Total 471 Vorth Carolina 18 In making tilia estímate I have thrown out many McKinley probabillües and some McKinley certainties. For example, I ïhave given him only thirty rotea from Illinois, whereas the bosses have practically given up the fight made in Cullom's name, and it is an even chance that every one of the forty-eight votes of Illinois will te cast for 'McKinley. Reed is allowed a eolid New England, where as I venture a predictlon, contrary to the belief, that McKinley wlll have votes from every New England state, except Maine and Khode Island, on the first ballot, and that Vermont and Connecticut, one or the otlier, will come to Slim solidly if needed to maintaln his lead. ïïew Jersey, too, will be for McKinley when the bell rings. Minnesota will not present the name of Davis, nor Kentucky Bradley's, unless the McKinley managers comsider the división perfectly safe. The McKinley people claim every vote from Alabama, California, Mississippi and an even chance for the Btates. McKinley's only peril lies in the premature ripening oí his canvass. The oppositiom has nearly three monttis inVhich to plan for iiis overihrow cm Bome new line of attack. On the other hand, the opposition, too, has overtralned. The trength of each of their candidates has been 3ted. The favorite son business has been made a laughing stock. What arrow may be left in their quiver it is not easy to see. But the people must remember that the bosses are experienced, resourceful and have plenty of money at command. The McKinley lines must not only be formed, but Btay formed. The McKinley men must not sleep on their arms from now uaitil election day.