About Business

In i special letter to the Courier, lenry Clews, the New York bunker, ays: New York, October 22, 1895. In Wall Street, the speculative interest till "hangs flre." There is hesitation nd postponement, though in no seuse rositive distrust. The spirit of speculaion and investment alike is conservativa nd cautious, and those wlio have made arge profits upon the adviuiceof the last ew nionths are not disposed to risk tlieiu ecklessly upon new ventures. There is afeeling that the not remóte future bas etter conditions in store ; but between he present and then there are contingencias which are regarded as possibly nvolving sharp tests of the strength of he niarket. Chief among those uncerainties are the course of gold movement after the opening of the newyear, and the xtremely sensitive state of speculation on the foreign bourses. The formero!" .hese uncertainties is viewed hopefully, or at least as being so far in the future as o warrant no acute misgivings at the noment. The bad possibilities of the rausatlantic mining speculatiou, howeyer, is a mach more serious matter and compela prudent operators to keep on heir guard. The "Kaffir's" excitment is one of the vildest outbreaks of speculative mania experienced within the present century. t began with the remarkable success of a few ventures connected with the new gold discoveries in South África. This ed to the creation of "syndicates" without end, and to the formation of comjanies for exploration and for dealing n the new issues of stocks and for the joldest banking undertakings. In resjectto basis, many of the schemes nave really none except that of air ; whilst most of those that have actual property have very questionable depositsof the precious metal, and all are capitalized immensely in excess of their actual merits. In the exploiting of these ventures, the fine art of financmg bas been carried to the most daring pitch of excess. Dividends have been declared in the face of losses and in the absence of production or even of any development. By, bold manipulation, the prices of these issues have been steadily forced up to a positively ludicrous infla tion. tt is impossible to state in exact figures ;he extent to which this furore of speculaiion has run, for of a large amount of the ventures no public information is obainable. But, so far as respects the companies which give more or less publictiy to their affairs, there are some 25 which have been paying dividends, with some regularity, averaging about 20 per cent and ranging in some cases as high as 65, 75, 90 and even 100 per cent. These may be regarded bona lide enterprises ; and in the speculative entlmsiasm they have excited lies the basis of the rotten superstructures of speculation on which the metropolitan and provincial stock markets are alike running crazy. The legal capitalization of these 25 companies is about $32,500,000, while their present market price represents $192,500,000 the dividends averaging about 9 per cent on the current price. Besides these, there are L33 companies reportingon the Londou market which are paying no dividends and pass niuster on reiterated promises that are never fulfilled. These nondividend jiayinii minos havean aggregate capital of $139,000,000. Their market valuatiou last month was $505,000,000 or exactly four times the par value of the shares. Besides the 158 mining companies above referred to, there are 31 other various organizations, which are concerned in land, banking, estates, promoting, exploration, etc. These concerns have a total capital of $79,000,000, consisting priucipally of -Cl shares; and, in this case again, the market value is exactly four times the par capitalization, being $315,000,000. Excludingfrom the reckoning the twenty-iive dividendpaying mining stocks, we have here, first a total of 164 enterprises, representing either no valuó or very nncertain value, capitalized at $218,000,000 ; and second, this camparatively worthless scrip worked up to a fictitious market valuation of $880,000,000. France bas also its schemes of like quality andsiinilarly inflated, butwe have nömeans of knowing their exact ex-tent. This is the ineasure of the tnaaa of explosive elementa that now underJies the Soancial markets of London and Paris. This is the quality of the investment material that those great centres are gloatingoverwhilecontemptuously turningup their nosesat American sei urities. It is not supristntr that the sober part of London and Paris nhonld begin to feel nneasy. ïhat all this must end i a terrific explosión thpre is no possibility of question. That t!ie catastrophe eau be much longer postponed is not to be doubted. The symptoms are already ominous. The stage of distrust luis been reached, and the next Stage must be realizing; and when that cotnes the collapse will be instantaneous, and hundreds of millions of market value may be wiped out in a few hours or days. At the nomen1:, the stronger speeulators are attempting to stay tlie realiziüg proceas by maiti force of buying; but stich stuff cannot !e saved by any such tricks, and soon the big speculatóra añd tlie little ones will be crowding each otlier to realize, with no buyera in the field. From the nature of the case it must be so; and it is none too early to discount the inevitable. - The interest of tlie New Yock market in this iuapending explosión lies in thia : that as the collapse would affect the whole investment market. our securities held in England would stffer in sytnpathy, and tnight consequently be returned on this inarket. It is eas)', houever, to overestimate tiie extent of that danger. The class who have participated in this craze are not likely to be the sam aa those who invest in our securities orspeeulate in tliem. The latter class might temporarilj' realize ; but the demand would soon return, and the speculative interest in London would then centre upon Ainericans, as affording the rnost attraction to the conservatism in speeulation which would then be the order of the day. Xevertheless Wall Street cannot afford to be incliifei'9nt to the coming end of this inflation. We shall feel the shock of the distant earthquake, and it will be prudent td keep a vigilant eye upon our china. Home conditions affecting the market are generally favorable. The business of the country is proceeding upon a conservative but fairly profitable basis. The business of the railroads continúes to gradually iinprove, and the increase of $180,000 in last month's receipts of the New York Central is regarded as au encouraging symptom. The conferences among the Western roads, 'vith a view to stopping rate-cuting, are progressing favorably towards souie form of agreemeut. The rise of 25 cents per ton in the price of coal is favorable to better results for the coal roads. The movement of produce to the seaboard is now fairly under way ; which meana not only better earnings for the railroads, but also a freer supply of exchange against grain and eotton, and a further decline in rates for sterling. The large outflow of currency to the interior is a healthy symptom, and is gradually putting up tlie rate of interest towards a normal scale, which bas been much needed as a ineans of insuring a inore wholesome regulation of the gold movement.